Square One

Jenny Doust on Using probabilistic reasoning

Probabilistic reasoning is used when we consider the diagnostic accuracy of tests in our clinical decisions. It is also called Bayesian reasoning, being based on Bayes’ theorem, in which the probability of a hypothesis is modified by further data… We use tests every day to decide whether our patients have a particular disease, but we often ignore the uncertainty inherent in the test results. Only rarely can we define how well a test rules in or rules out a disease. Does this matter?

Richard Smith on Promoting Health Literacy

If we think of health literacy as knowing the treatment for atrial fibrillation or whether to go to the doctor with a sore throat, then doctors are a lot more literate than patients.

If, however, we consider, as many do, health literacy to be the ability to derive and understand the statistical risk of various treatments versus no treatment of a condition from randomized trials and systematic reviews, then doctors are not much more literate than patients. ..

…standard ways of presenting information on medical risk in journals, the media, patient information leaflets, and, indeed, everywhere would be a good step to raising literacy…

If you want to know just how literate (or is it numerate now?) you are, there is a quiz here, here and here.